The WA Gas Market is at the crossroads in 2026. After years of forecasting gas supply shortfalls, the latest data suggest a significant softening in gas demand pointing to a more balanced gas market in the short to medium term. Structural changes in gas demand with closures in Alumina and Nickel operations saw monthly gas demand I Q4 2025 fall below 1,000 TJ/d for the first time in 5 years. Short term prices are the lowest in 3 years and suppliers are indicating less gas will be marketed than in 2025 (Domestic Gas Statement)
Supply
In the latest market review released in December 2025, the market operator (AEMO) points to new gas supply from the Scarborough Project and Perth Basin as providing additional gas above demand until the end of the decade. The exception is 2028 where the timing of new supply may not meet aggregate forecast demand. Assumptions behind the forecast are subject to change and BrightSource does not expect material gas shortages until 2030.
Demand
Gas demand in WA continues to fall year on year with latest closures of Alumina and Nickel refining operations in 2025. This likely points to a lower future gas demand forecast which will continue to result in excess gas supply in the short term. In FY 2025, BrightSource estimates up to 40 petajoules of domestic gas was exported via the North West Shelf on a swap basis with the owners of the delayed Waitsia Gas Plant.
Prices
Lower demand and consistent supply has translated to lower gas prices. Short term gas prices declined through 2025, and more gas buyers took advantage of short term excess supply. Gas prices for 1 – 2-year contracts were slightly higher and contracts that extend
beyond 2 years (supply in 2028 and beyond) were priced significantly higher, explaining gas buyers’ reluctance to contract in that period.
BrightSource Support
BrightSource has been actively supporting key clients with gas procurement over the past 5 years. Current gas prices (under contract) enjoyed by these clients are significantly lower than the average realised WA gas prices published by Santos and Woodside in their quarterly reports. A good knowledge of the market, extensive relationships with all suppliers and structured processes managed by BrightSource provides the advantage to achieve a better gas market outcome.